THE PREDICTIVE VALIDITY OF BIPOLAR AT-RISK (PRODROMAL) CRITERIA IN HELP SEEKING ADOLESCENTS AND YOUNG ADULTS: A PROSPECTIVE STUDY

 
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Presentation First Author: 
ANDREAS BECHDOLF
Abstract: 

There are no established tools to identify individuals at risk for developing bipolar disorder. We developed a set of risk criteria for bipolar affective disorder (bipolar at-risk - BAR). And tested their predictive validity in a 12-month prospective study that was conducted at Orygen Youth Health Clinical Program (OYH).At intake, BAR screen-positive individuals and a matched group of individuals who did not meet BAR criteria were observed over a period of 12 months. The BAR criteria include general criteria such as being in the peak age range of the onset of the disorder, as well as sub-threshold mania, depression plus cyclothymic features and depression plus genetic risk. Conversion to first episode mania/hypomania was defined by the presence of DSM-IV manic symptoms for more than 4 days in line with DSM-IV definition of hypomania/mania. Of 559 help-seeking patients, about 10% met BAR criteria. 35 participants were included in the BAR group and 35 matched participants were selected to be in the control group. During the follow-up, five BAR patients out of 35 (14.3%) converted to first episode hypomania/mania as opposed to none in the non-BAR group (_2(1)=5.38, p=.020). Four out of these five converters had a DSM IV diagnosis of BD I or II.These findings support the possibility of identification of persons prior to the onset of mania/hypomania. The proposed criteria need further evaluation in bigger, prospective studies with longer follow-up periods.

Conference Name: 
Presentation Date: 
January, 2015
Additional Authors: 
ASHWIN RASHEETH - SUE COTTON
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